Blessing Manale
South Africa’s utility-scale electricity mix primarily relies on coal (83% of electrical energy supplied in 2023/24), with rapidly increasing integration of renewable sources like wind, solar, and hydro responsible for about 9%. Nuclear energy, currently provided by Koeberg Nuclear Power Station, contributed approximately 4%. South Africa possesses significant uranium resources, and the hard question is whether nuclear projects could leverage these resources to create long-term economic benefits for the country.
As part of the energy strategy, the country is assessing the feasibility of expanding the current nuclear capacity. This assessment should be aligned with the draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2023, South Africa’s 2050 decarbonisation goals and the need for a developing economy.
South Africa’s draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2023 proposes 14 500MW of nuclear energy capacity by 2050. Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has consistently affirmed that nuclear remains a key component of government policy and a solution to the country’s energy crisis.
With the upcoming finalisation of the IRP in mind, we need to put the facts on the table and understand, rather than convince, one another in order meet the country’s energy demands while pursuing a low-carbon pathway and just transition.
For us as the Presidential Climate Commission, with our mandate being to provide advisory and foster consensus on the just transition, we believe that as South Africans, we must explore if nuclear could support South Africa’s Just Energy Transition (JET) by providing long-term, high-skill jobs and leveraging local uranium resources.
The main aim of this dialogue is threefold being (1) To analyse the feasibility of nuclear scale-up in the country (2) Explore technical assumptions on nuclear and its ability to deliver short-term socio-economic benefits due to its high costs and longer implementation timelines and (3) Unpack the relationship of nuclear development, the skills required to create quality jobs and the ability to leverage local uranium resources.
Many studies and experts have propagated that nuclear energy benefits may include low greenhouse gas emissions, reliable baseload power, price stability through long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs), and job creation in high-skilled sectors. Challenges involve high upfront costs, long development timelines, public perception issues, and technical capacity gaps.
Further, there is scepticism about whether South Africa could achieve the required concessions for nuclear build given the country’s track record with the governance and construction of large energy generation infrastructure projects that have been delayed leading to cost overruns.
In our initial engagements, our stakeholders have raised concerns about whether nuclear energy aligns with the social and economic goals of the JET. They also question whether nuclear projects would create enough jobs to support workers transitioning out of carbon-intensive industries such as, coal. However, there is the acknowledgement that while the nuclear build programme energy may not generate short-term jobs such as renewable energy projects, it offers substantial long-term opportunities in plant operation and maintenance.
Our ultimate goal is to arrive at a conclusion that supports a nuclear policy that maximises opportunities for South Africa, minimise substantial risks, realises the potential for nuclear to contribute to local economic development through localisation and job creation particularly as South Africa seeks to align its energy strategy with the goals of the JET.
In an attempt to reach the best conclusions for our country, the national discourse should be able to dissect the following three critical points.
– Municipal Integration: There may be an opportunity to explores nuclear energy’s integration into municipal energy plans, using eThekwini as a case study for potential 940 MW nuclear capacity by 2040. Financing models like PPAs could enable municipalities to access nuclear energy without upfront capital. Challenges include high initial costs, but nuclear offers benefits in energy security, price stability, and decarbonisation.
– Technical Considerations and Risks: Nuclear’s potential benefits and risks, noting that current models do not consider large-scale nuclear as a least-cost pathway due to high costs and long lead times. There is cautious optimism about Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as a future option, acknowledging their early development phase.
– Build Rates and Financial Models: Global nuclear deployment, financing, and cost competitiveness, emphasising that affordable, concessional financing is crucial. Challenges in replicating cost reductions seen in other countries needs to be noted due to South Africa’s infrastructure management experience. Financing options to be discussed including PPAs and vendor financing, with a cautionary view on long-term debt implications and the potential for locking in high rates.
Rebuilding our local nuclear industry will require significant investments in infrastructure and skills development but, over time, it could help strengthen South Africa’s energy independence and provide economic benefits- But it has to be at no cost or compromise to any of our development needs and the decisions about such investments must be taken with the highest form of transparency, inclusion and accountability.
Blessing Manale is the acting executive director and Head of Communications of the Presidential Climate Commission.
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