Dugan Brown
As the world braces for the 2024 US presidential elections, the possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency looms large over Europe.
Trump’s foreign policy during his first term was marked by a deep scepticism toward multilateral alliances, with Nato at the centre of his criticism.
One of Trump’s main grievances was the failure of many Nato members to meet the alliance’s defence spending commitment of 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP). As a result, he threatened US withdrawal from Nato, a scenario that would devastate the European security architecture.
If Trump were to secure a second term, Europe might once again face the spectre of an American pull-back from Nato. a move for which the continent appears ill-prepared.
At the 2014 Nato Summit in Wales, members agreed that each country would strive to spend at least 2% of its GDP on defence by this year.
The commitment was aimed at enhancing the military capabilities of European Nato members and reducing their reliance on the US.
However, a decade later, only a handful of Nato members have reached the 2% threshold. As of last year, seven of the 31 members, including the US, the UK and Greece, are meeting the goal, while major European powers like Germany, Italy, and Spain remain well below the mark.
Trump brought the issue to the forefront during his presidency, taking an aggressive stance toward the Nato allies he saw as freeloading off US military protection. His administration demanded that Nato members exceed the 2% commitment, suggesting that 4% should be the new goal.
A second Trump term in the White House could be more dangerous for Nato than the first. Trump might follow through on his threats to reduce or end US participation in the alliance. The consequences would be catastrophic for Europe, especially in the face of mounting security challenges, most notably the war in Ukraine and the resurgence of Russian aggression.
Without US military support, Nato’s ability to defend its eastern flank, particularly the Baltic states and Poland, would be compromised.
American troops stationed in Europe, US missile defence systems and US intelligence capabilities are crucial to the alliance’s deterrence posture against Russia.
A US withdrawal would leave Europe exposed, forcing it to rapidly increase its defence spending and military capabilities.
Europe remains unprepared for a future without US military support. Many European leaders have acknowledged the need to increase defence spending, but progress has been slow. Germany, the largest economy in Europe, has fallen short of its defence budget commitments, and although Berlin announced a significant increase in defence spending after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is not expected to reach the 2% target until next year.
Similarly, other major European powers like France and Italy are struggling to meet the goal, while smaller countries remain far below the threshold.
Beyond defence spending, Europe lacks the military capabilities to defend itself independently from the US. The EU’s attempts to develop a coherent defence policy, including the establishment of a European Defence Fund and efforts to increase co-operation among member states, have been hindered by bureaucratic inefficiencies, political disagreements and budgetary constraints.
Europe’s reliance on US military support through Nato has long been a cornerstone of its security. However, the failure of many European Nato members to meet their defence spending commitments has exposed the continent’s vulnerability.
During his first term, Trump leveraged the weakness to threaten US withdrawal from Nato, and if he were to win a second term this year, that threat could become a reality.
In the face of growing security challenges, Europe is not ready to defend itself independently, and its lack of preparedness could have dire consequences for global stability.
* Brown is a Bachelor of Social Science student at UCT.
Cape Times