Analysts are suggesting that the ANC’s potential decision to disband its KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Gauteng provinces could ultimately lead to a merger with the DA.
Political and Governance analyst, Sandile Swana, argues that disbanding the two provinces would accelerate an exodus of ANC members to the uMkhonto weSizwe (MKP) Party, led by former president Jacob Zuma.
This, combined with the ANC’s declining voter support, would leave the party with no choice but to seek external partnerships to remain relevant.
Swana’s assertions come after President Cyril Ramaphosa’s revelation that the ANC was still discussing whether to disband the two province’s executive committees (PECs) due to their poor election performance last May.
Ramaphosa was speaking on the sidelines of the 25th annual Joe Slovo commemoration this week, where he said the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) has not yet made a decision on the matter.
The NEC met in Cape Town on Monday night, but the focus was on drafting the January 8 Statement, according to ANC national spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri.
The party’s leadership is currently in the Western Cape ahead of its 113th birthday celebrations.
ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula had earlier said a decision on the future of the two provinces would be made in January.
The NEC is expected to meet again next week in Johannesburg to discuss the matter further.
When combining the ANC’s votes with those of the ANC under Ramaphosa, the total percentage drops to 54%, down from 57% previously. This decline is expected to continue, with the ANC potentially stagnating at around 40% support.
“The idea of disbanding ACN KZN and Gauteng can be done but it will accelerate a merger process that could easily happen between the ANC and the DA as well as an exodus of some of the members of the ANC, from the ANC to the MKP.
“Remember that the MKP has not attracted new supporters to the ANC because when you combine the ANC votes and the votes of the ANC of Ramaphosa. They got to 54% whereas they had 57% so they have decreased by 3%... and we expect them to decline further combined,” Swana said.
“I don’t expect MK to actually grow to such a point that it can control two-thirds majority in SA… I also don’t expect the ANC to grow beyond 40%. So the ANC is going to have to rely more and more on outside agencies… and in its current form they are prone to partner with the DA with the current configuration,” Swana said.
He added that there could, however, be internal rebellion.
“As you can see the SACP is already against this and I think they are in support of Panyaza Lesufi. The move to disband the two provinces will have the effect of making it quite necessary that over the next five years for the ANC to merge with the DA because it will cost them support,” he said.
Tshwane University of Technology Associate professor, Dr John Molepo, said the disbandment of the two provinces would be unfortunate for the ANC.
“The ANC is currently struggling… so once they disband, the possibilities are that those that are at the helm might end up leaving the organisation. They will end up losing members and for them to recover will become a challenge, particularly in KZN.
“In Gauteng, they don’t have reasons to disband because it is a cosmopolitan province. The ANC’s support in Gauteng has been dwindling. So if you want to disband, you are still going to cripple the party.”
Molepo said the party should come up with a recruitment programme instead of disbanding… and mobilise its members to be active.
Gauteng provincial chairperson, Panyaza Lesufi, refused to be drawn for comment but had previously said that there was no news of disbandment.