In a revealing turn of public opinion, the latest South African Reconciliation Barometer (SARB) shows a significant rise in distrust towards the country's leadership, with a majority of South Africans expressing scepticism about the integrity and effectiveness of those at the helm of governance.
A stunning 79% of South Africans believe that leaders cannot be trustee to do what is right - four times more than 20 years ago.
In addition, eight in 10 South Africans (81%) believe that national leaders are not concerned about what happens to ordinary people like themselves.
The SARB is one of South Africa’s longest-running public opinion surveys, first conducted by the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) in 2003.
This year marks the 20th anniversary of the report, which contains current results on citizens’ attitudes towards the upcoming 2024 elections, as well as democratic governance, social cohesion, economic transformation and national reconciliation.
The 2023 report indicates a concerning trend: a substantial increase, from just over half in 2003 to eight in ten in 2023, of South Africans believing that leaders are indifferent to the plight of ordinary citizens.
This growing scepticism is further highlighted by perceptions of trustworthiness.
Two decades ago, only about 18% of South Africans questioned the trustworthiness of their leaders.
Today, that figure has alarmingly quadrupled, with 79% expressing doubt in their leaders' integrity.
The backdrop of this eroding trust is a decade marred by pervasive corruption, as detailed by the Zondo Commission of Inquiry into State Capture.
The Commission's findings in 2022 painted a grim picture of widespread corruption involving high-ranking government officials and influential business figures.
Despite President Cyril Ramaphosa's condemnation of these acts as a betrayal of democracy, there remains a palpable frustration over the slow pace of reforms and prosecutions.
The Auditor-General's report further compounds these concerns, revealing significant financial losses and under performance within the public sector.
This has led to a deepening public consensus on the issue of corruption, with the majority of South Africans agreeing that corrupt officials often evade justice and that most politicians lack the resolve to combat corruption effectively.
Confidence in public institutions, a core measure of the Barometer's assessment of political culture, has also seen a decline.
Early surveys showed moderate confidence in key institutions like Parliament, the national government, and the legal system.
However, by 2023, less than 40% of South Africans expressed significant confidence in most institutions, with the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) and the South African Revenue Services (SARS) being notable exceptions.
Key findings of the Barometer include a high interest in voting in the 2024 elections, growing support for the EFF, and a notable decline in confidence in the ANC.
Additionally, there's a widespread feeling of low political efficacy among South Africans, with many feeling unqualified to participate in politics.
This is juxtaposed with a strong belief that important decisions should reflect the will of the people.
One of the key authors of the report, Professor Rajendran Govender of the University of Cape Town said that declining trust in leadership and governance was not limited to South Africa, but globally.
Over the past two decades, public opinion surveys and studies have shown a worldwide downturn in trust towards governments and institutions. However, Govender emphasises that the rate of this decline varies by country, influenced by specific local factors.
Citing examples, Govender pointed to the United Kingdom, where public trust in government plummeted following Brexit and the rapid turnover of prime ministers from Theresa May to Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak.
In the United States, the decline was fuelled by the Trump presidency, the rise of disinformation, and election denialism.
Turning to South Africa, Govender noted a gradual decline in trust, mirroring the country's deteriorating service delivery and governance failures, particularly at the local government level.
This decline, Govender noted, had been exacerbated by the ruling party's insularity, favouring unity over accountability and governance. The ANC's declining electoral fortunes led to coalition governments, which initially sparked optimism, but soon descended into chaos, as seen in cities like Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Nelson Mandela Bay.
State capture, increasing corruption, and issues like load shedding have further accelerated this decline in South Africa.
Govender said the Covid-19 pandemic initially saw the government praised for decisive action, but as regulations became confusing and poorly implemented, public confidence sharply decreased.
He said the economic shutdowns, while saving lives, resulted in significant job losses, with many South Africans yet to recover their livelihoods.
In 2003, four out of five South Africans trusted political leaders to act in the country's best interest.
By 2023, this trust plummeted to one in five. Govender suggests that this accelerated decline in South Africa could be attributed to these compounded factors, along with other potential reasons.
Addressing whether this trend can be reversed, Govender remains cautiously optimistic.
He asserts that rebuilding confidence is a slow process, more challenging than losing it. Improvement in governance, economic stability, greater political accountability, and relief for distressed households are crucial for regaining public trust.
However, he warns that this is a long journey, and regaining lost trust will take considerably more time than it did to erode.
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