As Trump enters the White House again, Brazil faces a potential diplomatic crossroads. With President Lula strengthening ties with BRICS nations and moving away from US influence, Trump is set to dramatically reshape South American politics and challenge Brazil’s current trajectory. This analysis explores the historical US-Brazil relationship and what Trump’s return could mean for the region’s political landscape.
The geopolitical influence of the US in South American countries is undeniable. South America is at the doorstep of the US. With the growing relationship between South American countries and BRICS, particularly the growing relationship between many of these countries with China and Russia. The US cites the regulation of these relationships as important for security concerns regarding long-standing tensions between itself, China and Russia.
The US and its South American influence
There have been a number of right and left waves in South America with the US exercising some or other influence. Democratic governments generally prefer democratic countries within South America, however, they have been known to turn a blind eye to the atrocities of right-wing leaders. In Argentina (1976), the democratically elected President Perón was overthrown in a US-backed coup, paving the way for the military dictatorship of General Jorge Rafael Videla. Former U. S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger visited Argentina several times during this dictatorship. The same trend was seen in Bolivia (1971), Chile (1973), and Brazil (1964).
The right, the left and the poor in between
Brazilian political history indicates that the US had not only influenced Brazilian politics in 1964, but has continued this strategy to present day. The concerns around Trump’s re-election and its impact on South American politics was prompted by the Trump administration’s backing and support for former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro, garnered considerable right-wing support in Brazil and was assisted by American intelligence agents to jail the strong opposition from the more socialist Luiz Inácio Da Silva, and his successor Dilma Roussef. The similarity between Trump and Bolsonaro’s political style was demonstrated by Bolsonaro the Trump of South America. Bolsonaro’s government was beneficial to the wealthy elite within the country and largely marginalised poor Brazilian communities. Bolsonaro’s Covid-19 strategy, for example, saw criminal networks in Brazil implement their own lockdown and its concomitant regulations due to government failure to do so.
Challenging the US
Under President Lula, Brazil has increased its proximity to China and Russia, via the BRICS network and independently. Last year Brazil signed an agreement with China, where the two agreed to ditch the dollar when trading with one another and opting for trade in their respective currencies. These dedollarisation efforts are not distinct to Brazil but elsewhere in the world too, where American dominance is questioned regarding currencies and financial markets. With fragmented right-wing support still existing within Brazil, Trump’s chances of influencing the next election of Brazil is very likely.
*By Cole Jackson: Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group Chinese & South American Specialist