Despite the uncertainties caused by this year’s El Niño weather phenomenon, the national Crop Estimate Committee’s (CEC’s) latest crop estimates indicate that the country is once again in a strong position in terms of winter and summer crop output.
Thabile Nkunjana, senior economist at the National Agricultural Marketing Council, said these are favourable developments for both consumers, who are still under pressure from low disposable incomes, and producers, who will have more stock for the market despite commodity prices falling dramatically when compared to the same period a year ago.
“Maize, normally a larger summer crop, increased by 55 400 metric tons (0.3%) month-on-month at the end of August 2023, reaching 16.4 million metric tons. This means that 3.2 million metric tons of yellow and white maize will be available for export for the current season,” said Nkunjana.
He said that as of the first week of September 2023, a total of 1.6 million metric tons of maize had been exported to the world market, with the regular markets of South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan purchasing the majority of this.
“Early estimates for winter crops show a strong output picture, as was the case for summer crops. Wheat, one of the most significant winter crops grown predominantly in the western parts of the country and the second-most important grain consumed after maize in South Africa, is expected to total 2.1 million metric tons, an increase of 31 000 metric tons (1.5%),” said Ntunjana.
Other winter crops, such as barley and canola, increased by 78000 metric tons (26%) and 33 000 metric tons (16%), respectively. These are, however, still early estimates for winter crops, and they are expected to change in the coming months, depending on weather conditions.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), says the data released by the CEC paints a positive picture of the 2022/23 summer crop season and the 2023/24 winter crop season.
“Regarding the summer crops, we have the seventh 2022/23 summer crop production estimates, and the data is unlikely to change in the following three updates for the season. If we focus on a few major summer crops, the CEC forecasts South Africa’s 2022/23 maize crop estimate at 16.4 million metric tons, up mildly from last month (0.3%). This crop is 6% more than the 2021/22 season and the second-largest harvest on record,” said Sihlobo.
He said the expected ample harvest is primarily a result of high yields, as the area planted is slightly down from the 2021/22 season.
“A crop of 16.4 million metric tons implies South Africa will have sufficient supplies to meet domestic maize needs of roughly 11.4 million metric tons and have over 3.2 million metric tons for export markets in the 2023/24 marketing year (this marketing year corresponds with the 2022/23 production season),” said Sihlobo.
He added, “Overall, the winter crop is in good condition, and we will keep a close eye on weather conditions in the coming months. Regarding the summer crop, the focus will soon shift to the new 2023/24 production season that starts in October. The current season is nearing completion.”